Market Sizing: Coffee Shops in NYC

Market Sizing Analysis:

1. Framework:

interface MarketSizing {
  population: number;
  targetMarket: {
    percentage: number;
    frequency: number;
  };
  competition: {
    marketShare: number;
    averageRevenue: number;
  };
}

class MarketAnalysis {
  calculateMarketSize(): number {
    const nyc = {
      population: 8_400_000,
      workingAge: 0.65,
      coffeeConsumers: 0.70
    };
    
    return this.calculateTotalShops(nyc);
  }
}

2. Calculations: a) Target Market

   • NYC Population: 8.4M
   • Working age (18-65): 65% = 5.46M
   • Coffee drinkers: 70% = 3.82M

   b) Consumption Pattern

   • Average visits: 3x/week
   • Annual visits: 156 visits/person
   • Total visits: 596M visits/year

   c) Shop Capacity

   • Average daily customers: 200
   • Operating days: 360
   • Annual capacity: 72,000 customers

3. Result:

   • Required shops = 596M / 72,000 ≈ 8,300 shops

4. Validation:

   • Population density check
   • Competition analysis
   • Market saturation
   • Geographic distribution

Company Context (McKinsey):

• Structured thinking
• Clear assumptions
• Data-driven approach
• Practical considerations